DIY Investing vs. The Average Stock Market Return

drowning in ocean

Why Make it Hard When You Don’t Have To? When my son does mazes he always starts from the end of the maze and goes backwards to the start. When I first saw him doing this (age 4) I corrected him. You’re doing it wrong. You have to start on the left and figure out…

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The Effect of Interest Rates on The Treasury Yield

Interest Rate Shopping

Thinking Independently It’s Independence Day this week in the US and I wanted to talk about how independence is thinking for yourself and pointing out things you know are not right. Many times this means you have to be on your own or with a smaller group that’s going up against something large. And if…

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Why Stock Market Predictions Don’t Matter

stock market predictions

Stock Market Predictions And The Drive For Certainty Since we’ve been little kids we’ve wanted to know exactly what the rules are. Why? We want certainty. The reason people love stock market predictions is because they make their brain feel safe… Why? Certainty. And the bigger the prediction.  The End Of The Dollar. $700 Gold.…

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Are You Being Too Conservative?

dominoe effect

Is There Such a Thing as Conservative Investments that are Too Conservative? You often hear me talk about questions and how questions determine outcomes. How they determine your life. And it often comes down to how good the questions you’re asking are. I’ve had three conversations this past week with people that have been too conservative…

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Are We Slipping Into A Recession?

wwi

The Maginot Line A hundred years ago WWI ended. It was a terrible war, fought in Europe with the two main players being Germany and France. Germany invaded France on France’s Eastern boarder. After WWI France decided that Germany wasn’t  going to attack them again like they had just done. So they started building up…

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This Is Why You’ll Miss The Next Market Crash

next market crash

Our Brains Are 100,000 Years Old The human brain is the exact same size it was thousands of years ago. That means we have the exact same brain capacity that our hunter-gather ancestors had. Our brain processing power is exactly the same as it was 10,000 years ago. You might ask the question: How does this affect…

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Money Always Flows into One of these Four Places

There are Two Themes to my Investment World. 1. I look to where people are saying “this doesn’t make sense.” 2. I look where things are so obvious that you just can’t see them because they are right there. In this post I’m going to be addressing the second theme. The question is where and how…

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The Myth of Portfolio Diversification

What Happens When Everyone is Wrong? If everyone is telling you the same thing, but that thing is actually not true, how are you going to figure out that that one thing is actually hurting you? Take the Harvard or Yale Endowment. A lot of people look to this as the standard for successful investing.…

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Twice As Nice

Twice As Nice How leveraged funds can make a boring investment sizzle. Look at the chart below. You could buy the blue line (TLT = long-term US Government bonds) or you could buy the red line (UBT = 2x long-term US Government bonds). Some things that are not twice as nice. Flat tires. Sprained ankles.…

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There is Never One Cockroach.

There is never one cockroach. It’s not the first cockroach that homeowners worry about, it’s the hundreds or thousands they cannot see that they worry about. In this country, we started seeing our first “financial” cockroaches in the likes Washington Mutual in 2008. Two weeks ago, the lights were turned on in Europe and we…

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