Investing When The Market Is Falling

Investing when the market is falling

Fathering starts when kids are at their worst.

Kids need their dad most at the end of the day…tired and full of emotions from the past twelve hours of life. They need a safe place to, what I call, “off-gas.” To lower their armor and just be. Be seen. Be loved. And be themselves.

Because managing and handling those big feelings on their own is impossible for little ones. It’s even nearly impossible for big ones.

So what do kids need most?

A dad’s kindness, attention, and understanding.

They don’t want toys. Or fancy parties. Or big houses. But a dad that can be there and hold the space and be kind while his two little ones “let down their armor and be seen.”

And let me tell you. It’s hard. It’s really hard.

I wasn’t born with parenting genes. I’ve had to work very hard to find that kindness and love when my tank is empty and even when my tank isn’t empty. But I have to because…well…I’m the dad in the room.

And just recently, it occurred to me. Real parenting. Real kindness. Real attention is needed most when kids are at their worst.  

Right? Parenting is easy when all is good.

But when things go sideways, kids need their parents to show up. This is when parenting starts. This is when the parent has to show up.  

And so it wasn’t even ten minutes after sending my Monday Update about the current market decline, that I immediately got emails forwarded to me.

On Monday I wrote,

Please start counting (and send to me) how many times you read or hear the words plunge, collapse, nose-dive, imminent, cascade, tumble, crash, topple, etc. this week.

At this very moment, “the pick of the month” investment newsletter industry is preparing a brand new ad campaign to scare the shit out of you.

And you know what, it’s gonna work. Because they are very good at it. And as a result, they will increase their subscribership to whatever “the world is ending” newsletter they’re ready to pitch.

So prepare to hear from the Porter Stansberrys and Harry Dents over the next few days. This is when they make their killing. Your feeling of uncertainty is why they own such large estates in the countryside.

I kid you not, this was the first email I got.

The subject line was, [URGENT] Why a Crash Is Simply Inevitable At this Point.

Below is a screenshot of that forwarded email.

harry dent

Can’t read the small text? That’s okay. I’ll get to it below.

[optin-monster-shortcode id=”i72q7lv1bxf4vi8trgun”]

Have you ever been in an abusive relationship?

If you subscribe to a ‘Harry Dent’ or a ‘Porter Stansberry’ then you’re most likely in one right now and may not even know it. Because the way some of these “pick of the month” newsletter people act is abusive.

The point in time when investors most need a parent to guide them is when things feel and look their worst. Like a market decline.

Not losing your cool when the market is declining, is when your money most needs a parent in the room. A parent who understands. Who’s been there. Who has the battle scars. Not from reading about the battle but actually being in battles.

Does your 35-year-old money manager have battle scars? Does your money manager have less than 9 years of experience? Did your money manager protect you from the 2008 or the 2000 declines of 58% and 49%? Does your manager know that bond prices are topping out after 36 years?

Do you?

When the market’s in decline is when investors most need that safe voice of reason, stability, and love.

And I want to be 100% clear. That voice is not saying,

“everything will be okay IF you just hold because the market always comes back.”

The long-only-never-get-out investor might… kind of…be okay, if they’re like 30 years old with 25 more years of earnings runway. But even then, why take a 50% hit?

The market has always come back.

Yeah, so what?

You can get to San Francisco from New York if you fly east across the Atlantic and Europe and Asia and the Pacific. But why?

The price chart below shows you the 2000 dot-com bust decline of 49%. I’ve adjusted this image to include inflation. Notice how long it took for the market to come back. Just because you can wait 16 years doesn’t mean you should have to.

The last two years in the stock market was like putting your two kids in front of a video for two hours while you told your house guests how good of a father you are.

Wrong.

Fathering starts when your kids CAN’T watch the video. Or eat the cookie. Or stay up to 11 PM.

And right now, your money needs a Dad.

People want to know everything is going to be okay. They want to know someone is in their corner. Even if they just threw their dinner across the room that you just spent an hour preparing (happened last week).

And when you are on the receiving end of abusive language like (all from the fear-based email above, which is from Harry Dent) …

A historic market crash is imminent and the tidal wave of volatility that follows could crush every investor…

“…survive the devastation…”

“I don’t know that anyone is truly prepared for what’s about to occur.”

“It’s literally a race against the clock… and there’s very little time to prepare for what’s next.”

“Disappear in a blink of an eye…”

…Then you are in an abusive relationship.

Tired of being abused?

You know why Trump got elected?

Because people were tired of being abused by politicians. The vote for Trump was a vote for ENOUGH.

Have you had enough yet?

Because here’s the deal.

When you buy an investment, it goes against everything your body was designed to do. Our brains were not designed to “grow money.” They were designed to not get killed.

There is a powerful instinct at work.

One that was designed during a time that being wrong meant death and not just losing 12.5% in your stock market account. It meant death.

So what does the brain do today when it reads abusive language from Sir Harry Dent? It does what it has to do to “not die.”

I’m not being dramatic. This is what’s actually going on in your brain.

This part of the brain cannot distinguish between a real threat and a perceived threat. Emotions are important. They provide us a rewarding life. BUT when our brain is flooded with, “I might not survive this lion attack” they don’t serve us.

The brain doesn’t play around. And it doesn’t know the difference between a potential lion attack and fear-based emails. That’s why a stock market fall of 10% or 20% gets confused by our brains.

So before you buy a stock, ETF, fund or newsletter ask yourself, What are you buying into?

Are you buying, the stock market is complex so my solution has to be complex? Or are you buying, complex questions can have simple answers? Or something else?

The most complex thing in the world is to raise a child. Every child is different. Every parent is different. Every environment is different.

Complex problem = How do I raise a well adjusted, kind, thriving human being?

Simple solution = Do this one thing

Complex problem = How can I grow and protect my money and wealth in a market that has been manipulated more ways that you can remember?

Simple solution = Ask the only two stock market questions that matter.

What the market does is not your problem. What you do about the market IS YOUR PROBLEM.

You know why my company is called Fearless Wealth? Because I don’t want to “fear” you into anything. Building wealth is not about being fearless. It’s about getting comfortable with the things you may be uncomfortable with doing.

It’s hard work. But it’s the right work.

Just last night, my littlest one (almost seven years) declared I was the worst dad ever and that she wasn’t going to sleep until mommy got home. My wife was out with friends and my littlest one was already way past her bedtime.

What she was really saying was, I need you dad.

Dad showed up and I read her a really long book (along with my ten year old). It was difficult.

One because reading is really hard for me and this was a longish book, and two, the book was written with a font that was so small that I could barely read it.

And all I kept thinking in my head was. She needs Dad.

In Your Corner,

RCPeck-Dig Signature.JPG     
RC Peck, CFP

P.S. Do you know that we manage people’s money? If you would like to connect with us to understand more about what that would be like, just call us at 650.257.0207 and we can have a conversation. 

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