The Real Reason Rates Are Dropping In The US
The Federal Funds Rate Are Dropping… We are told the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate… price stability and maximum sustainable employment. Some joke their third mandate is a higher stock market. We are also told that The Fed looks to US centric data to make their interest rate adjustments… well I think things have…
Five Stock Market Prediction For the Final Innings Of This Bull Market
Change is coming. But not how most expect. And those who don’t prepare are unfortunately going to have a very rough few years. As the 60/40 stock bond split “balanced” portfolio is not going to do the heavy lifting that it has in the past. The problem? Those darn bonds. 10 year treasuries are negative…
The Middle Seat of Investing
“Oh… I get the middle seat!” – Said no one ever. The middle seat sucks. No one wants it. No arm rests. No space. No area to lay your head. No leg room. You’re always being bumped or elbowed by one of your neighbors. The only people that get them are the ones that bought…
Economics vs Price… Choose Wisely.
Hold on… here we go. I think of things as being cheap, fair or rich. And today, broadly speaking, there is nothing cheap and if you draw a midline down that range which we will call intrinsic value, there is almost or maybe nothing or virtually nothing that is selling below its intrinsic value. –…
New Lifetime Highs AND New Lows… Position Accordingly
Taking its time… If all you’ve been thinking is, the only thing this market does is go higher, then look below. Charlie Bilello has a nice chart showing just how long it’s taken the S&P500 to break above a new 100 point mark. In the last 20 years this is the third longest time it’s…
Avoid These Five Parts Of The Market
Avoiding what is falling or weakening is as important, if not more important, then buying what’s going up. But when you are taught to diversify over 15 ETFs or more you add complexity to your world. Which means you are going to miss the signal to get out when it happens. And you’ll be owning…
US Yields Are Plunging… here’s what to do.
No one is prepared… Okay, maybe not “no one,” but very few people are prepared. NOT for the market to get cut in half again but for it to rip higher. With headlines like “… greatest outflows since 2008…” people are scared the next 50% drop will happen while they’re trying to sleep. But…
Bond Volatility Returns
Volatility has returned to the markets… but not where people are expecting it. The volatility is NOT in stocks… but bonds. And it could cost people a lot. Why is this happening? Has this happened before? What does it mean? If it has happened before how did it resolve itself? Who got hurt? Who didn’t…
This Chart Tells the China – US Trade War Best
At 12:00 PM on January 20th 2017, the 45th President of the United States was sworn in. He lost the election by 2.9 million votes, the largest margin ever by a candidate that went on to win the Presidency (wait, what…? Yep. He lost. But because the US still follows an 18 century law, he…
Investment Lies
In the span of three hours I got an email from Peter Attia, a medical doctor that specializes in longevity. And another one from Shane Parrish, a former Canadian intelligence employee. And yet, they were both talking about the same topic on the same day. The first email referenced an article about two cyclists who…
