Is the Commodity Market Breaking Out of its 9 Year Downward Trend?
A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words Our brains are designed to think visually. But over the past 100 years we’ve been taught that the visual parts of our brain are not needed. Everything is focused on letters, words, sentences and paragraphs. You want a good job? You better score high on your SATs… And…
Why Stock Market Predictions Don’t Matter
Stock Market Predictions And The Drive For Certainty Since we’ve been little kids we’ve wanted to know exactly what the rules are. Why? We want certainty. The reason people love stock market predictions is because they make their brain feel safe… Why? Certainty. And the bigger the prediction. The End Of The Dollar. $700 Gold.…
Money Always Flows into One of these Four Places
There are Two Themes to my Investment World. 1. I look to where people are saying “this doesn’t make sense.” 2. I look where things are so obvious that you just can’t see them because they are right there. In this post I’m going to be addressing the second theme. The question is where and how…
The Myth of Portfolio Diversification
What Happens When Everyone is Wrong? If everyone is telling you the same thing, but that thing is actually not true, how are you going to figure out that that one thing is actually hurting you? Take the Harvard or Yale Endowment. A lot of people look to this as the standard for successful investing.…
Uncertainty Reigns
Before the planes crashed into the World Trade Center towers on September 11th, 2001 the US stock market had already fallen 29% over the previous 18 months. The US markets had already entered into a bear market and the indices were clearly in downward trends. So did September 11th have anything to do with the…
The Billionaires vs. The Central Bankers
The S&P500 has just finished six straight quarters with declining revenue numbers… …And the last two quarters with declining profits. …And the only thing companies are doing with their zero-interest-rate-policy debt is to continue buying back their own stock and hopefully their competitors. So none of them [as a group] are investing in capital…
Bonds Send Sell Signal…Plus A Rant On The Industrial
Who do you think has better investment returns…? The person with a trading app on their phone or the person with no trading app on their phone? Well believe it or not. There’s been a 40-year study on this topic. No…not the topic of trading apps but around trading. And Dalbar Research has clear evidence.…
Buffet’s Sermon… And Charlie Munger’s Lie…
Sometimes I feel like Rodney Dangerfield… You wouldn’t know it by how my kids treat me sometimes that I’m actually the person putting the roof over their head, clothes on their back and food in their bellies. Which is also how I feel sometimes when I show people evidence that straightforward is actually the…
This One Correction Preceded Both 50% Falls In The SP500
Price charts don’t lie. Yes…they sometimes take a little bit of time to get the big picture right, but what do you expect? They’re taking their input from 100’s of millions of investors from around the world. And that means tops and bottoms will be messy. I get it. We humans don’t like things to…
Three Important Charts To Watch Over The Next 30 Days.
I used to think the news was important… After all, my parents watched it every night. I don’t ever remember them missing it. They could miss Hart To Hart or Magnum P.I. but never the news. So, like my parents I started watching… Until 1997, when it hit me. The news might be interesting but…
